After the Israeli airstrike towards Iran in late October global oil prices plunged in response, wiping out all leftover risk premium. This Monday oil prices started the week gaining traction when OPEC+ announced that the OPEC-eight has extended its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut until the end of December.
The eight OPEC+ countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, and Algeria – and together they carry the 2.2 million bpd production cuts.
In the wake of the US presidential election oil prices climbed as the market assessed Donald Trumps election win and with that possible tightening of Iranian crude, how much this will impact the market is uncertain as Iranian crude has found a home in China.
Hurricane season continues to threaten the US Gulf of Mexico as hurricane Rafael moves towards the US with oil platforms in its path and the possibilities of shutting in production.
Month | Last |
|---|---|
| Crude Oil Dec 2024 | 71.92 |
| Crude Oil Jan 2025 | 71.46 |
| Crude Oil Feb 2025 | 71.06 |
| Crude Oil Mar 2025 | 70.72 |
| Crude Oil Apr 2025 | 70.44 |
| Crude Oil May 2025 | 70.20 |
| Crude Oil Jun 2025 | 69.96 |
| Crude Oil Jul 2025 | 69.69 |
| Crude Oil Aug 2025 | 69.46 |
| Crude Oil Sep 2025 | 69.18 |
| Crude Oil Oct 2025 | 68.90 |
| Crude Oil Nov 2025 | 68.85 |
| Crude Oil Dec 2025 | 68.45 |
WTI Future Contracts: Backwardation could reflect market fears of supply disruptions
Figure 1: OPEC+ and Election Elevates Prices
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US Crude inventories and production
US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.15 million-barrel in the week ending November 1, while market forecasters expecting a 1.8 million barrels increase in crude stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 8.1 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending November 1, 2024, which was 281 Kbpd more than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 90.5 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Figure 2: US Crude Stocks including SPR at 814.9 million Barrels
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Figure 3: US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 427.7 million Barrels
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US Rig Activity
The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count remains flat for the week at 585. Oil focused rigs had a decrease last week, down from 480 to 479. Gas focused rigs increased by one from 101 to 102 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs remained flat at four active rigs.
Figure 4: Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased From 480 to 479
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Figure 5: Gas Focused Rigs Increased From 101 to 102 Active Rigs
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Figure 6: Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Flat for the Week at 585
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Figure 7: Rig Count in Major Basins
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Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.
By the Numbers November 6, 2024
