US Oil Weekly Update: Trump, Putin and Geopolitical Unrest

The Russian president Vladimir Putin agreed to limit attacks on Ukraine energy infrastructure after a two-hour call with the US president Donald Trump. The two leaders couldn’t agree on a full cease-fire, but Putin agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure for a month. This was less than the US president hoped for beforehand, but his Russian counterpart also agreed to continue peace talks.

The geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has rekindle this week as the US started a bombing campaign in Yemen targeting Houthi rebels. The Houthis leaders warned that they will escalate attacks in the Red Sea after the US airstrikes, and the rebels has fired ballistic missiles towards Israeli territory intercepted by the Israelis.

The heightened tension in the Mideast pushed Brent above $72 for a brief moment before settling around $1 lower.

Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.

US Crude inventories and production.

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending March 14, with market forecasters predicting between 1 and 1,1 million barrel-increase in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 8 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.66 million barrels per day during the week ending March 14, 2025, 45 000 bpd less compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 86.9 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 832.8 million Barrels.

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 437 million Barrels.

US Rig Activity.

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count were flat last week, currently at 592. Oil focused rigs increased by one last week, at 487 active rigs. Gas focused rigs decreased by one, now at 100 active rigs. Miscellaneous was flat last week still at five active rigs.

Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Flat Last Week at 487

Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Decreased from 101 to 100 Active Rigs.

Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Were Flat Last Week, still at 592.

Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers March 19, 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.

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