(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Another 2 million barrel increase

Oil prices has been on a steady decline as bearish sentiments continues to impact prices, with the WTI closing below the $70 mark. OPEC+ compliance seems to improve and output from members with production quotas fell by 370 kbpd in October to 33.57 million bpd. The overall OPEC+ production was up by 140 kbpd in October to 40.58 million bpd, a number impacted by the rebound in Libya. OPEC adjusted its 2024 oil demand forecast, and for the fourth consecutive month cut their global oil demand forecasts for 2024. OPEC estimates oil demand growth of 1.82 million bpd for 2024, down from 1.93 million bpd in last month market report. Lower expectations in Chinese demand growth account for most of OPEC’s downgrade. Chinese expected demand growth by OPEC is 455 kbpd down from previous estimates of 583 kbpd to an average of 16.8 million bpd.

WTI Future Contracts [caption id="attachment_139392" align="aligncenter" width="770"] Investornytt. WTI Future Contracts: Backwardation could reflect market fears of supply disruptions[/caption]

Figure 1. Bearish Outlook Drag Down Crude Oil Prices [caption id="attachment_139393" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Investornytt/GE Briefings. Chart West Texas Intermediate[/caption]

US Crude inventories and production US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.09 million-barrel in the week ending November 8, while market forecasters expecting a 1.85 million barrels increase in crude stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 9.7 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day during the week ending November 8, 2024, which was 175 Kbpd more than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 91.4 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 817.5 million Barrels [caption id="attachment_139395" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: U.S Energy Information Administration[/caption]

Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 429.7 million Barrels [caption id="attachment_139396" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: U.S Energy Information Administration[/caption]

US Rig Activity The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count remains flat for the week at 585. Oil focused rigs was flat last week, at 479 rigs. Gas focused rigs was also flat at 102 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs remained flat at four active rigs.

Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Flat at 479 [caption id="attachment_139397" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: Baker Hughes[/caption]

Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Flat at 102 Active Rigs [caption id="attachment_139398" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: Baker Hughes[/caption]

Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Flat for the Week at 585 [caption id="attachment_139399" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: Baker Hughes[/caption]

Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins [caption id="attachment_139400" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Source: Baker Hughes[/caption]

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers November 14, 2024 [caption id="attachment_139394" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Trykk på bildet for større versjon[/caption] Disclaimer This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report. × Dismiss this alert.

(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Another 2 million barrel increase

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(+) US Oil Weekly Update: Another 2 million barrel increase

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