OPEC in its August Monthly Oil Market Report lower its demand outlook to 104.3 million bpd for 2024. That is a projected growth decrease of 135 kbpd, but OPEC demand growth expectation at 2.1 million bpd is still healthy number north of market consensus.
The OPEC downward revision of demand growth is the first cut from OPECs growth estimates since its release over a year ago. The earlier estimates were a significant growth in global demand of 2.25 million bpd, but due to the major, global growth engine Chinas outlook the numbers were adjusted down. We still have a substantial spread in this year’s demand growth between the two outliers, IEA at 970 kbpd versus OPECs new estimates at 2.1 million bpd with the market consensus somewhere in between the two agencies.
At the same time OPEC adjusted down their 2025 growth estimates by 65 Kbpd to 1.8 million bpd. IEA also made some minor adjustments for their 2025 estimates with a decrease of 30 Kbpd to new growth estimates at 950 Kbpd. The gap between the two agencies for 2025 remains wide as OPEC expect almost twice the growth compared with IEA.
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