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(+) Tanker Market Monitor

OceanEXL av OceanEXL
15.05.2023
i Analyse
Lesetid:6 mins read
Large general cargo ship tanker bulk carrier, Top down aerial view.

Ilustrasjons foto

Crude comeback. Over the last few weeks, we have seen Afra’s and Suezmax’s revert to peak performance, to
what we hope is a fixed trajectory for continued growth, all we need is for VLCC’s to get on the wagon as well.


14. May 2023 – RESEARCH

There have been a lot of speculations about the impact of the OPEC production cut on the crude volumes at sea, and now as the market has
made it past the headline stage and is reacting to the actual market, volumes seem to be consistent still. Oil prices have also adjusted
themselves again after reacting quickly to the OPEC news soaring over $80 per barrel a few weeks ago, but as seen now, countries like Russia
have managed to increase their export volumes after supposedly cutting production, not impossible, but strange.


DPP/CRUDE:
The VLCC’s are getting a helping hand from below, as the Suez and Aframax segment’s bullishness has started to wear off on the VLCC
segment with rates now starting to see an impact. Sentiment wise Owners are very well positioned as we head into the next week.
Available Suezmax tonnage has been taken off the shelves leaving few prompt options for charterers in WAF and MED, as rates continued to
increase this past week the only threat that seems to remain for Suezmax Owners is the potential crossover with the VLCC segment where
charterers will try and save some dollars. The outlook for the Aframax market looks very solid as the market keeps progressing, however, we
are experiencing smaller gains w–o–w, but still, improvement is visual, and rates seem robust.


CPP/PRODUCT:
The LR2 segment started the week busy, however, a lot of ships failed, and towards the end of the week, there was still plenty of available
tonnage as the list grew longer and the demand looked weaker. LR1’s managed to close off better than their big brother and a healthy number
of vessels got fixed. The LR1 segment overall seemed well positioned this past week, for guidance AG/UKC earned around mid–3mill.
It was not a great week for the MR segment as the market started to flatten out in Asia, as both the Far East and Singapore saw less activity
w–o–w affecting rates accordingly. The USG is not looking fantastic for MR’s, forcing many Owners to consider the European market instead,
or if possible find their way to AG, where the best earnings seem to be.


TIME CHARTER MARKET:
The period market is still uncertain of which direction to move as we continue to see vessels being fixed above last done pushing rates a bit
but we also see the opposite with vessels going for shorter periods up to 1 year at below last recorded which suggests that owners are not
entirely sure of the actual market rates to the benefit of some charterers who gets discounted vessels – on the contrary, we also see some
owners pushing their luck and getting locked in on lucrative rates as it seems some charterers believe the market will further increase. There
was not much change in the benchmarks this week as the rate spreads continue to be the same with no tilting to either increase or decline.


SECOND–HAND MARKET:
Tankers continue to switch ownership with many vessels still being sold to either private or middle eastern buyers who have been particularly
active the last year with close to 200 tankers being sold to middle eastern buyers since May 2022. Asset prices continue to stay elevated
however there seems to be a slight change in buyers’ and sellers’ ideas now with buyers being a bit cheaper compared to the last couple of
months when it was normal to see vessels being sold above last done. The short–term outlook still looks very strong for asset prices as we still
see a healthy level of vessels being negotiated and buyers continue to be interested in current market prices. The biggest driver for the current
asset prices is the ever–growing shadow fleet and the historic low order book which gives buyers some comfort in buying while the market
continues to be elevated. Discussions seem to be the same, some are cashing out while they are ahead of the game and others believe the
market will continue to increase and test privately each month to compare fetching prices. We see from time to time that new vessels are
being tested privately with owners who usually have kept away from the S&P market for a few years now testing the market for prices to
decide whether it is time.




NEWBUILDING
Not much activity this week on the newbuilding side but we continue to see a healthy amount of interest in contracting newbuildings while the
asset prices stay elevated. Even though we have seen more newbuilding orders being concluded in the last past few months there is still a
long way to go before the inflow of vessels in 2024–2026 would become a supply concern and have an actual effect on the current fleet, as
more vessels have been moved to the shadow–fleet which leaves room for more newbuildings to be delivered without affecting actual supply
in the market. We have seen newbuilding prices increase the past few weeks but they are still at levels where it makes sense to bet on
newbuildings compared to going for second–hand units at elevated prices.


RECYCLING
The recycling rates once again fell this week with political instability and concerns being the major driver for the decline in Pakistan and Turkey.
While we continue to see vessels being suggested for recycling the actual deliveries seem to be much lower as prices are heavily discounted
and too many uncertainties are affecting the market. The healthiest hub seems to be India for now but that also comes at a cost with reduced
levels which are around $500 / LDT while Bangladesh steel prices have stabilized and offers around $530 / LDT. HKC recycling wins a big junk
of the deals at discounted levels which is a big factor for owners to consider when discussing. There was only one reported sale this week
suggesting that the actual levels of vessels hitting the beach on tankers is much lower than anticipated as tanker markets continue to be
lucrative and owners prefer to dock older vessels rather than send them to the beach. Container vessels seem to be the focus right now of
the cash buyers leaving very little attention to tanker vessels.

Picture of OceanEXL

OceanEXL

Servicing the maritime industry through technology, advanced intelligence and visionary shipbroking within multiple segments, specialized in asset trading, chartering, advisory services and capital markets.
Disclaimer fra OCEANEXL OCEAN EXL FZCO & OCEANEXL TRADING L.L.C. No information in this report constitutes financial advice or other advice or any recommendation to take actions hereupon. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this report by OCEAN EXL FZCO & OCEANEXL TRADING L.L.C or any of its members or employees, and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions.

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