Ukentlig oljekommentar fra USA!

After the Israeli airstrike towards Iran in late October global oil prices plunged in response, wiping out all leftover risk premium. This Monday oil prices started the week gaining traction when OPEC+ announced that the OPEC-eight has extended its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut until the end of December.

The eight OPEC+ countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, and Algeria – and together they carry the 2.2 million bpd production cuts.

In the wake of the US presidential election oil prices climbed as the market assessed Donald Trumps election win and with that possible tightening of Iranian crude, how much this will impact the market is uncertain as Iranian crude has found a home in China.

Hurricane season continues to threaten the US Gulf of Mexico as hurricane Rafael moves towards the US with oil platforms in its path and the possibilities of shutting in production.

WTI Future Contracts: Backwardation could reflect market fears of supply disruptions

Figure 1: OPEC+ and Election Elevates Prices

US Crude inventories and production

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.15 million-barrel in the week ending November 1, while market forecasters expecting a 1.8 million barrels increase in crude stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 8.1 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending November 1, 2024, which was 281 Kbpd more than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 90.5 percent of their operable capacity last week.

Figure 2: US Crude Stocks including SPR at 814.9 million Barrels

Figure 3: US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 427.7 million Barrels

US Rig Activity

The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count remains flat for the week at 585. Oil focused rigs had a decrease last week, down from 480 to 479. Gas focused rigs increased by one from 101 to 102 active rigs. Miscellaneous rigs remained flat at four active rigs.

Figure 4: Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased From 480 to 479

Figure 5: Gas Focused Rigs Increased From 101 to 102 Active Rigs

Figure 6: Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Flat for the Week at 585

Figure 7: Rig Count in Major Basins

Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.

By the Numbers November 6, 2024

En vandrelysten finansnerd med tydelige spor av graphomania og bibliofili i blodet. Hans første møte med markedet bortsett fra noen kornete aksjekurser på 28" tekst TV, var igjennom Odin fondene i 2000 – 2001. Der diversifiserte han pengene ut på ODIN Offshore, ODIN Norden og ODIN Finland, helt tilfeldig. Etter å først dyppet stortåen forsiktig ned i vannet ble han etter hvert hektet. I 2002 gjorde han sin første handel i en enkeltaksje, Selskapet hadde ticker symbolet, STL- eller Statoil på folkemunne. Der kastet han alle kortene i panikk etter en liten korreksjon noen måneder senere, han elsket det! Nå kombinerer han sine to hobbyer, skriving og finans og smelter dem sammen til en lidenskap.