Jan-Thore Bergsagel, Head of Energy Research
Last week The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2025 global oil demand growth in the IEA May edition of Oil Market Report. The agency lifted its outlook by 20 000 barrels per day to 740 000 bpd, still cautious despite the trade agreement between the US and China.
On Friday Moody’s became the third major credit agency to downgrade US credit rating from Aaa to aa1, citing the growing burden of financing the federal government’s budget deficit and the rising cost of rolling over existing debt amid high interest rates. Moody’s, the ratings firm, announced that the government’s rising debt levels would grow further if the Trump Republican package of new tax cuts were enacted. This makes lending to the US riskier.
On Wednesday oil prices got some upward momentum due to CNN reporting that Israel was planning an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Brent jumped over $66 per barrel on the news and WTI jumped over $63, but prices got pulled back later in the session due to concerns of an oversupplied market, with EIA reporting a higher-than-expected growth in inventories for the week ending May 16. Brent is back below $65 and WTI pulled back to $61.44 late in the session.
Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.
US Crude inventories and production.
US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1,3 million barrels in the week ending May 16, with market forecasters predicting between 1.5 and 1.9 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 15.7 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.490 million barrels per day during the week ending May 16, 2025, 89 Kbpd higher compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 90.7 percent of their operable capacity last week. American production is plateauing last couple of weeks, adding an extra of 5 Kbpd last week, at 13,392 million barrels per day.
Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 843.7 million Barrels.
Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 443.2 million Barrels.
US Rig Activity.
The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by two last week, currently at 576. Oil focused rigs decreased by one last week, at 473 active rigs. Gas focused rigs also decreased by one last week now at 100 active rigs. Miscellaneous were flat last week now at three active rigs.
Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by One Last Week now at 473
Figure 5. Active Gas Focused Rigs Decreased by One Last Week now at 100
Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by Two Last Week, now at 576.
Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.
Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.
By the Numbers May 21, 2025.
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This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.
