Crude oil futures surged on Wednesday after flaring tensions in the Middle East had the US State Department preparing to order the departure of non-essential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad. Iran threatened to strike US bases in the Middle East if talks regarding the nuclear agreement fell through, Trump has previously announced that the US could use force if the talks break down.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) advised vessels to use caution when passing through the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz.
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report Wednesday. Data from the status report shows another weekly decline in US crude inventories, with commercial crude stocks falling from 436.1 to 432.4 million barrels in the week ending June 6.
US domestic production increased during the week ending June 6, with an average of 20 000 barrels per day. Still below the December 2024 peak but 228 000 bpd higher than a year ago. With declining rig activity in the US in 2025, we expect to see a slowing in US domestic production through 2026.
Baker Hughes rig count showed a massive decline in active oil focused rigs, in their last report oil rigs dropped from 451 to 442 active oil focused rigs in the US.
West Texas Intermediates future contracts is in backwardation suggesting a tighter market in the future.
Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate Contracts.
Figure 2. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.
US Crude inventories and production.
US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels in the week ending June 6, with market forecasters predicting between 1.5 and 2 million barrel-decrease in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 8 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 27.2 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.226 million barrels per day during the week ending June 6, 2025, 228 Kbpd higher compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 94.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. American production increased by 20 Kbpd last week at 13,428 million barrels per day, still a plateauing number and well below the production peak of December 2024, but 228 Kbpd higher than a year ago.
Figure 3. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 834.5 million Barrels.
Figure 4. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 432.4 million Barrels.
US Rig Activity.
The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by four last week, currently at 559. Oil focused rigs decreased by nine last week, at 442 active rigs. Gas focused rigs increased by five last week now at 114 active rigs. Miscellaneous were flat last week still at three active rigs.
Figure 5. Active Oil Focused Rigs Decreased by Four Last Week now at 442
Figure 6. Active Gas Focused Rigs Increased by One Last Week now at 114
Figure 7. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by Three Last Week, now at 559.
Figure 8. Rig Count in Major Basins.
Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.
By the Numbers June 11, 2025.
Disclaimer
This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.
