OPECs March Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecasts a healthy 1,4 million bpd demand growth for 2025, unchanged from previous MOMR and the same 1, 4 million bpd growth forecasts for 2026, also unchanged from February MOMR.
Serial overproducer, Kazakhstan admits to overproducing in February by 330 000 bpd, but has agreed to yet another compensation cut. The giant Tengiz field operated by Chevron is the biggest contributor to the overproduction in February.
Money managers have cut its long-positions in oil futures, to lowest levels seen in years according to the COT-report. Contracts contracted from 177 000 to 171 000. Latest COT-report also shows money mangers cutting their short position last week, in a risk-off mentality.
In EIAs March STEO the US Energy Information Administration forecasts West Texas Intermediate to average $70.68/barrel in 2025 and $64,97/barrel in 2026.
Figure 1. West Texas Intermediate the Last Five Days.
US Crude inventories and production.
US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.448 million barrels in the week ending March 7, with market forecasters predicting between 0.8 and 1 million barrel-increase in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 11.8 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending March 7, 2025, 321 000 bpd more compared to the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 86.5 percent of their operable capacity last week.
Figure 2. US Crude Stocks including SPR at 830.8 million Barrels.
Figure 3. US Crude Stocks Excluding SPR at 435.2 million Barrels.
US Rig Activity.
The total number of active rigs operating in the US according to Baker Hughes rig count decreased by one last week, currently at 592. Oil focused rigs were flat last week, at 486 active rigs. Gas focused rigs decreased by one, now at 101 active rigs. Miscellaneous was flat last week still at five active rigs.
Figure 4. Active Oil Focused Rigs Flat Last Week at 486
Figure 5. Gas Focused Rigs Decreased from 102 to 101 Active Rigs.
Figure 6. Total Active Rigs in the U.S. Decreased by One Last Week, now at 592.
Figure 7. Rig Count in Major Basins.
Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Baker Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Baker Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon Central Time on the last day of the work week.
By the Numbers March 12, 2025.
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This report is under no circumstances intended to be used for or considered as investment advice. This report is to be used as information and general market guidance. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot guarantee that the information from sources is without incentives, but the author has taken considerable care to ensure that, and to the best of his knowledge, material information contained in the report is in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its understanding. Please note that this report is the author’s own research, opinions and conclusions, and the readers are recommended to draw their own conclusions based on other sources than this report, the facts and market picture can change in an instant and therefore the reader must do their own due diligence. The author, GE Briefings and Investornytt cannot be held responsible for the readers investments based on this report.
