(+) OPEC – Unchanged Demand Growth Forecasts

OPEC sees 1,4 million barrels per day demand growth in 2025 in their latest forecasts. This is unchanged from OPECs previous assessment in their January oil market report.

OPEC forecasts 1,4 million barrels per day growth in demand in 1Q through 2Q of 2025, with an 200 000 bpd uptick in the third quarter to 1,6 million bpd. In the fourth quarter demand growth is back down to 1,4 million bpd. Non-OECD is expected to carry most of demand growth with 1,3 million bpd, leaving OECD with a 100 000-bpd growth in 2025.

Data from OPECs February Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) shows expected total global demand to reach an average of 105,2 million bpd in 2025, with peak demand in the fourth quarter with a global demand of 106,7 million barrels per day. Demand from OECD countries is expected to average 45,9 million bpd in 2025, and non-OECD is expected to average 59,3 million barrels per day in 2025.

OPEC also kept its demand growth forecasts for 2026 unchanged at 1,4 million barrels per day- the same levels as 2025. OPEC expects a significant uptick in the fourth quarter of 2026 at 108 million barrels of total demand, with an average of 106,6 million barrels per day in total for 2026. OPEC sees average OECD demand for 2026 at 46 million barrels per day, with non-OECD countries at an average of 60,6 million bpd. With the data provided by OPECs report the producing group expects OECD demand growth from 2025 to 2026 to increase by 100 000 bpd, and non-OECD demand growth to increase by 1,3 million barrels per day in the same period.

MOMR reflects uncertainties with the new US Administration`s trade policies, which could potentially create a supply-demand imbalance not reflected in market fundamentals, with potential to generate more volatility. Growth for 2025 and 2026 will depend on how and to what extent potential tariffs and other policy measures will play out.