(+) Markedsrapport fra USA: -Moving day

At The Masters golf tournament, day three of the event is often referred to as “Moving Day“. This is the time at which the true contenders separate themselves from the pack, moving up the leaderboard and earning a spot in one of the last twosomes teeing off on Sunday. Moving Day is always eventful and really defines who is on top of their game versus which players will be watching the leaders finish while nursing a beer in the bar.

The third quarter of 2022 is bearing a striking resemblance to Moving Day in Augusta. While the first two quarters of the year were simply an all-around butt kicking for every non-energy stock out there, Q3 saw a relief rally and has presented an opportunity for companies to actually have their fundamental performance be reflected in the trading activity of their stock.

Here’s how TW’s stocks have performed so far in Q3 and YTD:

Taking a dive into the numbers on this list is quite revealing. The top two performers so far in Q3 are Quest Resource (QRHC) and enVVeno (NVNO). These happen to be two companies that are executing spot on with their business plans. The metrics for evaluating a garbage company relative to a pre-approval medtech concern are obviously very different, however I would suggest that both these companies are hitting their internal goals and this is being reflected in their share price.

Only three stocks in my universe are up on the year, with Anixa (ANIX) joining Quest and enVVeno in this category. Anixa is also starting to fire on all cylinders. This line in their 10-Q that came out on Friday is telling as to why the stock is up, “The [vaccine] study is roughly one-fourth of the way complete and is estimated to be completed by the end of calendar year 2022. Initial indications suggest that an immune response is being observed.”

Anixa is also the fifth best performing stock in TW’s universe in Q3. The other two from the top five are Fortress Bio (FBIO) and ParkerVision (PRKR), both of which were the two biggest losers in the first 2 Q’s and, therefore, were lucky recipients of nice “dead cat bounces”.

The point being made here is that finally (FINALLY!!!) we are in a market where fundamental performance is dictating stock price action. I’ve known (and written) for a long time that Quest is killing it; the market finally is waking up to this reality.

Which is good news for all TW stocks at the end of the day. Overall, our portfolio is executing well. There could be delays (TFF Pharma (TFFP) anyone?) or FDA holds, like INmune (INMB) is suffering, but in general, our companies are executing on their strategies.

This is exactly why I’m excited for the 4th quarter. At the Masters, Moving Day simply sets the stage for what is always an exciting fourth round. Those who are on top of their games on day 3 get the chance to perform on the big stage in the final round. For TW, this means that those companies that have teed themselves up for success will now have an opportunity to finish strong.

The list of catalysts coming in the final stretch of the year is very long, which should make for an interesting Q4. This is a list of what I think are the biggest events awaiting our portfolio in the coming months. This is not the complete catalyst list but the ones that are potential “game-changers” for the companies.

Anixa: CAR-T data first in Sept. with more throughout Q4. Vaccine data in Q4.
INmune: FDA hold removed soon. INKmune data on compassionate use patient soon.
Movano (MOVE): glucose and blood pressure data in Q4.
enVVeno: new product announced soon.
Quest: earnings reports should continue to beat with raised guidance.
Spectra7 (SPVNF): supply chain easing, growth accelerating in Q4.
TFF Pharma: UNION deal, VORI data, TAC data, hopefully other partnerships.

I look at that list and think there are very few question marks in it, yet somehow the stocks are not reflecting the opportunities at all. That said, as the companies continue to hit their targets, the stocks are going to benefit. As Quest and enVVeno showed us so far in Q3, setting goals and hitting them will be rewarded. I think those rewards are coming to most of the TW portfolio soon enough and I’m willing to go out on a limb and say that, by the end of 2022, I expect we’ll have had a banner year.

With the rally in TW’s stocks in Q3, on Thursday afternoon our YTD performance had pulled even with the S&P 500 slightly ahead of the Russell 2000. That was short lived with Friday’s beatdown (Fridays have been tough lately) but I’m very hopeful that we’ll be ahead of the indexes sometime before the end of the month.

This coming week, Mrs. Carlson and I are taking the three kids (and their significant others) to Portugal as a 30th anniversary gift to ourselves. Thus, I’ll not be writing newsletters for the next two weeks. I’m actually leaving my computer at home and already suffering detox just thinking about it. It’s a well-needed break, I believe.

I hope to have a lot of positive news to catch up on when next I sit down and discuss the state of the TW portfolio. In three weeks.