Concerns regarding Iranian and Russian oil supplies with maximum pressure and new, tougher sanctions helped oil prices climb to a two-week high earlier this week. Rising tensions in the Middle East is also a factor in elevating oil prices. The fragile cease-fire in Gaza could be terminated if the hostage deadline isn’t met.
Weighing on oil prices is President Trumps latest tariffs could weaken global growth and with that global energy demand. Tariffs and counter-tariffs tug-of-war between trading partners is creating uncertainties over global demand, and volatility is expected.
Figure 1: Another Inventory Build Puts Pressure on Crude Prices
US Crude inventories and production
US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels in the week ending February 7, with market forecasters predicting between 2.5 and 3 million barrel-increase in crude stocks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year and 11.6 million barrels lower than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending February 7, 2025, which was 82 Kbpd higher than the previous week`s average. Refineries operated at 85 percent of their operable capacity last week.
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