Without the pandemic years (2020-2021) the OECD commercial oil inventory levels are close to the four-year average and gained approximately 20 million barrels in the first five month of 2024, that equals to a 0.7% increase in the OECD 2.8 billion barrels inventory. This could signal a rather flat and balanced market. The first five months of 2024 demand had a 1 to 1.1 million bpd increase compared to the same period of 2023.
Going into peak demand season the signals expect the balanced market to turn in to deficit from June all the way through October when OPEC+ could start to unwind some of the voluntary cuts. This deficit could result in major draws in inventory in the range of 1.5 to 2 million bpd all dependent on how the demand picture plays out. Lower inventory levels help support oil price, and stocks below 1 billion barrels could help Brent reach $90 bbl.
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